The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma

Suleyman describes how, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, an assorted crew of Ukrainian software engineers, drone hobbyists, and soldiers quickly banded together to combat the invasion. Using drones rigged with small explosives, they took out vehicles and a supply base, causing the Russian army to retreat. The improvisation of the Ukrainian volunteers showed how new, affordable technologies available in the consumer market easily undermined a traditional military.

Suleyman argues that the coming wave of technology differs from previous waves due to four features: Its technologies have asymmetric impact, are experiencing a hyper-evolution, are omni-use, and have increasing autonomy.

As the Ukraine example shows, this new wave of technology empowers users asymmetrically, transferring enormous power to individuals. Suleyman quotes a security expert, Audrey Kurth Cronin, who remarked that “Never before have so many had access to such advanced technologies capable of inflicting death and mayhem” (138). Individuals can now utilize massively lethal devices that are difficult and expensive to combat; the United States and Israel counter the attacks of cheap drones with $3 million missiles. With this kind of asymmetric power, a single individual or even a single action could have global consequences.